After finally clinching a playoff spot with a win over the Ducks last night, I can now make this post without fear of jinxing us and causing a meltdown that could only be considered remotely feasible in Canuckland. Our odds of winning yet another division title are looking very good as the Flames and Avalanche battle for 8th, both of them looking largely incompetent and bringing me great joy while doing so.
The Canucks, on the other hand, have been large and in charge most of the season. A well rounded team with one of the best first lines in hockey, one of the best goalies in hockey(when he's playing well), and a defense that, well.. it has Christian Ehrhoff, so that's nice. Following, the things that make me nervous, and things that, for the most part, overcome that nervousness so that I can resume being an overconfident asshole.
Things that the Canucks should probably try to improve
PLAYING ON THE ROAD - A below .500 record on the road(OT losses count as losses, far as I'm concerned) really just isn't going to cut it in a hard fought 7-game playoff series. The Canucks allow more than a goal per game more on the road while scoring almost half a goal less. This is something that probably won't cost us too much until the 2nd or 3rd round as our home play should be able to carry us early, but it could be the difference between advancing or golfing if they don't find a way to correct it.
DEFENSE - Getting Willie Mitchell back would be a huge boost for the Canucks back end giving us a shutdown presence, but it will hardly stop it from being the undeniable weak point on this team. Christian Ehrhoff has shined bright this year, putting up a plus/minus that nobody really saw coming. Unfortunately, Alex Edler and Kevin Bieksa have both taken steps back while Aaron Rome and Andrew Alberts get somewhat significant minutes(or so it seems), due in part to Shane O'Briens infidelities, which I still just can't seem to get mad at him for. Remember a couple years ago, when the Canucks were defensively built and had one of the best defensive cores in the league? How times change. And how I miss Ohlund. The defense is what it is - they're not suddenly going to be world beaters come playoff time.
1ST PERIODS - For reasons nobody, including Alain Vigenault, can quite place a finger on, the Canucks can't seem to get going in the 1st period. They've allowed the 2nd most first period goals in the league, one of 3 teams that's letting more than one first period goal per game get by. Yet another thing that could very well cost us a big game in the playoffs.
2ND PERIODS - There's no numbers to back this one up, but the Canucks have been handing momentum to opponents in the 2nd period for the last few weeks. Not that they usually had a lot of it after the first period, but they've been withstanding middle frame onslaughts far too often. If the Canucks expect to make a deep playoff run, they're going to have to start playing 60 minute games.
LUONGO - There's no denying it, our world class goaltender has not looked like a world class goaltender for most of the season. It could be the olympics condensing the schedule, it could be the more offensively open style of hockey the Canucks are playing and it could be the absence of a bona fide shut down man for much of the season, but whatever it is, if he does not pick his game up then we are going to get bounced in the 2nd round at best. He needs to stop surrendering early leads and he needs to stop letting in demoralizers in the 3rd. He needs to consistently stop the pucks that he should, and he needs to start coming up with big saves when the Canucks need it.
Things that make the Canucks cup contenders
OFFENSE - Oh, sweet offense. It's no secret, unless you're Ken Campbell, that the Sedins have gone from a very good top line to one of the best in hockey. Alex Burrows flirted casually with 40 goals(even though he won't get there unless he lights it up the last few games), while the Canucks boast a total of 6 20-goal scorers. The back end has been chipping in as well, with Sami Salo healthy most of the year and Christian Ehrhoff quickly becoming one of the most important parts of our defense. 2nd in the league in goals scored, the Canucks have been able to score their way out of trouble time and again this year. And with depth like that, it seems unlikely it'll dry up too much in the playoffs.
HOME RECORD - When you have a .500 road record and are still approaching 50 wins, 100 points and a division title, you must be pretty damn good at home. Posting the 2nd most home goals and the 2nd least goals against en route to a 28-8-2 record at the Garage has effectively carried the Canucks to where they are. And come playoff time, GM Place isn't going to get any quieter and that dressing room isn't going to look any less like it should be on Cribs.
SPECIAL TEAMS - Okay, mostly power play, which is sitting pretty at 5th in the league. When Sanks & Bank(see what I did there?) can't get it done, the second unit often does, clicking at a respectable 21.1%. The penalty kill is sitting at 18th, but if either Luongo gets his shit together or Mitchell returns, or even both, the PK is going to get a huge boost. And it goes back to that home/road thing again: On the road, the Canucks have been killing them off at a pretty miserable 76.8%. At home, on the other hand, they're 7th best in the league with 85.6%.
3RD PERIODS - Yeah, we suck in the 1st and 2nd. But those 3rd periods, hoo boy! Once again second only to Washington, the Canucks have scored 94 3rd period goals. While allowing a measly 57. The comeback kids have made 3rd period comebacks to win the game no less than 11 times, or a third of the time. While that's trailing after 2 a few more times than I'd like, it's nice to know that we're not finished if we're down by a couple, or even a few.
INTANGIBLES - Is it just me, or do the Canucks seem to have them? Everyone on this team is fully committed to one thing: winning. And they're willing to do whatever it takes to do so. Ryan Johnson will throw any part of his body in front of any shot. Alex Burrows will block a shot with his throat. Down to a man, they dig deep in the corners, win battles along the boards, and seem willing to do whatever it takes. There's a good attitude in that dressing room, and that's an important thing if you want a long playoff run.
LUONGO - The definite X factor heading into this tournament. If he starts playing like we all know he can, then the Canucks will be very difficult to beat. If he keeps playing like he has been then we're about as easy to pop as a balloon at a birthday party, and may actually end up having to give Raycroft some playoff time. Not a bad thing in itself, but I'd rather have Roberto Luongo playing like a demi-god into triple overtime.
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